Us Recession 2024 Probability. Recession before february 2025 at 58%, that’s about as high as a forward. This model uses the slope of the yield curve, or “term spread,” to calculate the probability of a recession in the united states twelve months ahead.

26 rows in depth view into us recession probability including historical data. The conference board predicts a 96 percent likelihood of a recession in the us within the next 12 months, based on our probability model.